‘The Situation is Dire’: War on Iran Tightens India's LPG Supplies.

The ripple effects of a war being fought nearly a significant distance away are now impacting India's homes.

As aerial attacks on Iran impede energy deliveries through the key maritime chokepoint, stocks of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are dwindling across India, forcing restaurants to cut menus, reduce operating times and in some cases close completely.

Social media is awash with video clips showing crowds outside cooking-gas dealers across Indian metros and localities as anxieties over fuel supplies grow. Businesses appear the most affected: the most severe shortage is in restaurant kitchens.

"The situation is dire. Cooking gas simply isn't available," says a official of the National Restaurant Association of India.

Most restaurants run either on business-grade gas tanks or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the scarcities are now being felt across the country. "A lot of restaurants have shut down - some in the capital, many in the south. People are switching to traditional burners and electric cookers to keep kitchens going."

Localized Effects

In Mumbai, media reports say up to a significant portion of hospitality businesses are already fully or partly shut as business fuel stocks tighten. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some eateries say their gas stocks have depleted with little backup. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and no food items - it is nothing less than pathetic. Businesses are going to suffer," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.

Restaurant managers are rushing to adjust. "Menus are being curtailed, some are cutting lunch service and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that closures are fluctuating as supplies wax and wane. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - a couple are back in business. It's a changing landscape."

Retailers note a increase in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are selling out quickly.

Authority's View

Yet, the officials maintains there is sufficient stock.

India has more than 30 crore domestic LPG users and authorities say stocks are being redirected to households as tensions from the regional hostilities ripple through energy markets.

Roughly 60% of India's LPG is brought in from overseas, and about nine out of ten of those shipments pass through the key maritime route, the vital passage now significantly disrupted by the hostilities.

The petroleum ministry says that it instructed refineries to maximise LPG output for home needs, lifting domestic production by about a quarter. Business-grade fuel is being reserved for critical services such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "equitable and clear".

"A degree of anxious stocking and accumulation has been triggered by misinformation. The regular refill period for home fuel remains about under three days," says a senior official.

Spreading Anxiety

Now the anxiety is extending beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of two-wheelers outside a fuel station. "Anxiety is palpable," the caption reads.

According to reports from industry analysts, concerns about India's broader fuel supplies may be exaggerated.

India imports the overwhelming majority of its crude oil. Around 50% of its petroleum shipments - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the waterway, largely from Gulf countries.

Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked, the gap could be partly offset by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a sector expert.

Based on shipping data and industry information, increased Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, reducing India's effective gap from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"A large quantity of Russian oil barrels are currently in transit at sea in the Indian Ocean and, with only key buyers as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.

Kitchen Fuel: The Primary Concern

The primary concern is LPG, analysts say.

India consumes roughly one million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - 80–90% through the Strait.

Refineries can tweak operations to produce a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only lift domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.

In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be moderately reduced through varied suppliers. Refined product supply remains relatively comfortable. Cooking gas supply is the key factor to monitor in the coming weeks."

What may be intensifying the concern on the ground is not just limited availability but patchy deliveries - and the usual problem of hoarding.

An industry representative claims exploitative practices.

"Retailers are exploiting the situation - selling fuel on the black market and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and sold to the highest bidder."

For now, India's petroleum stocks may be cushioned by worldwide shipping. But in kitchens across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next gas canister.