🔗 Share this article

At first, Trump gave the impression to embrace a resolute stance concerning Ukraine. Following delivering threats of "significant repercussions" during the summer if Vladimir Putin continued blocking peace discussions, he finally introduced substantial sanctions on the Russian biggest petroleum corporations, these major energy companies. This move significantly affected the Russian leader's capacity to fund his military invasion in Ukraine.

But, via his newly presented detailed peace initiative for Ukraine, which was drafted by US and Russian diplomats without Ukraine's or EU participation, Trump has clearly reverted to his favorable to Russia position.

Favoring Military Action

This initiative would essentially favor Putin for attacking a sovereign nation while leaving the country's democratic system in peril. Despite strong statements that "Ukraine's independence will be confirmed", significant aspects of the plan effectively undermine that essential sovereignty. Seen as a Moscow's wish would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Demonstrating his real-estate past, Trump continues to treat the Ukrainian conflict as a simple border issue, like giving Russia a part of Ukrainian territory will satisfy the president. However, Russia's military campaign is not only about occupying a charred swath of economically weakened territory in Ukraine's east. Instead, it's about the nation's political system – and Putin's clear intention to weaken it so it no longer acts as an enticing standard for the Russian people of the democratic leadership that his increasing dictatorship prevents them.

Border Giveaways

Although keeping in position the already split oblasts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the plan would force the nation to surrender the whole Donetsk province. Beyond rewarding the Russian Federation with territory that its troops have been unsuccessful to capture in more than a decade of conflict, this concession would leave Ukrainian defenses severely undermined.

This region is the site of the nation's highly-touted "fortress belt", the entrenched military defenses that represent a essential impediment to Russian advances. The proposal would have Ukraine surrender these fortifications, giving Putin a unobstructed path to Kyiv if he later decide to renew the hostilities.

Armed Forces Limitations

Furthermore, in a move that would facilitate renewed fighting simpler for Russia, the plan would force Ukraine to cut the scale of its military from their present 800,000 to 850,000 personnel to a limit of this lower number. Importantly, the proposal sets no such constraints on the invading army.

Seemingly as a gesture to Russia's campaign to portray Ukraine's chosen by the people leadership as Nazis, the proposal declares: "Any Nazi ideology and actions must be rejected and forbidden." As if to underscore this element, it requires that "The nation will hold elections in this period" of a truce. At the same time, the proposal sets no condition that the Russian leader jeopardize his dictatorship by conducting democratic processes in Russia.

Security Commitments

Certainly, the plan makes Russia commit not to "enter neighboring countries" and to "establish in regulation its stance of non-violence towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". Yet given that Putin has breached comparable accords in the previous instances – including the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government committed to recognize the nation's sovereignty in return for relinquishing its historical nuclear weapons, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia promised to a ceasefire and a restoration of occupied land in the Donbas to Ukrainian control – for what reason should the international community trust this commitment on this occasion?

For this reason Ukraine has been so adamant on external security guarantees. Although the initiative threatens a "strong unified armed reaction" if Russia resume its aggression, and includes that "The nation will receive strong protection assurances", the particulars range from unclear to troubling. The initiative would not just deny the nation accession to NATO but also prohibit member states from stationing troops on Ukrainian territory, thus blocking the security presence, presumptively headed by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been relying to deter Putin from restoring his weakened military, rearming, and resuming aggression.

International Response

A separate side agreement according to sources would grant Ukraine with a alliance-like security guarantee, in which any future "major, intentional, and ongoing armed attack" by Russia on the country "shall be regarded as an act of war jeopardizing the peace and security of the Western nations." This implies a defense action. But in contrast to a capable Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's best deterrent against additional hostilities – the effectiveness of the parallel accord would depend on the dedication of alliance members, including the US administration, to act through arms to Russia's hostilities, an action they have {not